You’ve probably heard the headlines: “ChatGPT will replace Google search” or “AI is revolutionising online shopping.” As a business owner, you might be wondering whether you need to completely rethink your digital marketing strategy.

Here’s the thing: the hype and the reality are quite different.

A groundbreaking study just analysed 973 e-commerce websites with combined annual revenue of $20 billion USD to answer a simple question: Does traffic from ChatGPT actually convert better than traditional channels like Google search?

The answer surprised even the researchers.

The Big Finding: ChatGPT Traffic Underperforms (For Now)

When ChatGPT started adding “Buy” links to product recommendations in August 2024, many expected it would immediately outperform traditional channels. After all, AI can have entire conversations with customers, understand their needs, and make personalised recommendations.

The data tells a different story.

ChatGPT traffic currently:

  • Converts at a lower rate than Google organic search
  • Converts at a lower rate than Google paid ads
  • Generates less revenue per visitor than most traditional channels
  • Only beats one major channel: paid social media (Facebook, Instagram ads)

Think of it this way: if 100 people visit your website from Google organic search, more of them will buy something than if 100 people come from ChatGPT.

Why This Matters for Your Business

If you’re a Kiwi business owner, you might be getting pitched on “AI optimisation” services or wondering whether to invest in making your products more visible in ChatGPT results.

The practical takeaway: Don’t abandon your Google strategy yet.

Right now, ChatGPT traffic represents less than 0.2% of all website traffic in this study. That’s roughly 200 times smaller than Google organic search. And when those visitors do arrive, they’re converting at lower rates.

This doesn’t mean ignore AI entirely – but it does mean your traditional SEO and Google Ads strategies are still your bread and butter.

The Good News: Things Are Improving

Before you write off AI traffic completely, there’s an important trend worth noting.

ChatGPT traffic is getting better over time:

  • Conversion rates have been steadily increasing since launch
  • Revenue per visitor is trending upward
  • The performance gap with traditional channels is narrowing

However, there’s also a concerning countertrend: the average order value (how much people spend per purchase) is actually declining from ChatGPT traffic.

The researchers projected forward and found that even with current improvement rates, ChatGPT traffic won’t catch up to Google organic search within the next 12 months.

What’s Actually Happening Here?

So why isn’t ChatGPT traffic converting as well as expected? The study suggests several factors:

1. Early Days ChatGPT’s shopping features only launched in August 2024. The platform is still learning, retailers haven’t fully optimised for it, and consumers are still figuring out how to use it for shopping.

2. Verification Behaviour Many consumers likely use ChatGPT to research products, then switch to Google to verify recommendations or find better prices. Under standard analytics tracking, that sale gets credited to Google, not ChatGPT.

3. Limited Product Coverage Only about 2% of ChatGPT conversations involve purchasable products. The platform simply isn’t optimised for commerce yet – it’s still primarily a general-purpose AI assistant.

4. Trust and Familiarity Kiwi shoppers have been using Google for 20+ years. ChatGPT for shopping? Less than a year. Building that same level of trust takes time.

The One Thing ChatGPT Does Well

Interestingly, ChatGPT traffic has relatively low “bounce rates” – meaning when people do click through from ChatGPT, they don’t immediately leave your site. This suggests the recommendations are relevant, even if they’re not converting as well.

The problem isn’t that ChatGPT is sending the wrong people – it’s that something in the journey from AI recommendation to completed purchase isn’t working yet.

What Should You Do Right Now?

For most NZ businesses, here’s the sensible approach:

Keep investing in Google (organic SEO and paid ads) This is still where the volume and conversion quality lives. Don’t let AI hype distract you from channels that actually drive sales.

Monitor AI traffic, but don’t obsess over it Check your Google Analytics to see if you’re getting ChatGPT referrals (look for “chatgpt.com” in your traffic sources). Track the trend, but don’t panic if the numbers are tiny.

Ensure your product information is solid Good product descriptions, clear pricing, and accurate stock information help both Google and AI platforms recommend your products. This is just good practice regardless.

Optimise for product-page landings AI platforms tend to send people directly to product pages rather than your homepage. Make sure individual product pages are compelling on their own, with clear calls-to-action and easy navigation.

Stay informed, not reactive The landscape will change. But make decisions based on data, not headlines.

The Bottom Line

Is ChatGPT going to “kill Google” for e-commerce? Not this year, and probably not next year either.

Will AI eventually change how people shop online? Almost certainly.

But right now, if you’re a New Zealand business owner trying to drive sales, your time and money are still better spent on traditional digital marketing channels that have proven performance.

Keep an eye on AI developments, make sure your fundamentals are strong, and don’t let fear of missing out push you into premature investments.

The revolution might be coming – but it’s not here yet.

About This Research This analysis is based on “ChatGPT Referrals to E-Commerce Websites: Do LLMs Outperform Traditional Channels?” by Maximilian Kaiser and Christian Schulze (October 2025), covering 12 months of data from 973 e-commerce websites with $20 billion in combined revenue. Read more here.